Does Affirmative Action Raise School Completion? Evidence from Centralized Admissions in India
Abstract
Most evidence on affirmative action comes from elite institutions, where admission changes where students enroll rather than whether they complete school. I study centralized admission to higher-secondary school in India, exploiting separate cutoffs for unreserved, Scheduled Caste, and Scheduled Tribe applicants in a regression discontinuity design. A seat offer raises Grade 12 passing by 0.6 percentage points at the unreserved cutoff and 2.8 points at the Scheduled Caste cutoff, implying a 2.2-point gain from reallocating the marginal offer. The corresponding Scheduled Tribe difference is not statistically distinguishable from zero. This heterogeneity is primarily an access effect, since Scheduled Caste offers are much more likely to induce enrollment. These gains coexist with evidence consistent with mismatch in the most selective academic track, where reserved admission raises failure and lowers performance. The effect of expanding reservation therefore depends on which group receives the marginal seat and whether admission expands access or changes academic placement.